The Lions finished 9-8 last season after a 1-6 start. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (Amy Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images) Detroit Lions They’ll need to win at least 10 games to make the playoffs, and right now nine seems about right. The roster is good enough, but the Browns don’t have much depth. Deshaun Watson is going to be better, but how much better? The Browns feel they’ve upgraded their receiving corps and that their defense will make more game-changing plays under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. Daniel Popper Cleveland BrownsĮverybody’s still guessing when it comes to Cleveland - and this guess seems fair. But I have some concerns about the depth at a few positions, namely safety, inside linebacker and tight end. With better injury luck, they certainly have a chance. The path to 10 wins is going to be much more treacherous in 2023. They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year. Nine of those wins came against teams with losing records, though. The Chargers finished 10-7 last year despite a slew of injuries to key players. I projected a 9-8 finish for the Chargers when the schedule was released in May, and I am sticking with that. Nine wins is not enough, and 10 or 11 (or more) should be achievable. The Jets are all in, they have the roster to compete with the best teams in the AFC - especially on defense - and they’ve been hyping themselves up as Super Bowl contenders all offseason. And yet, with Aaron Rodgers in the fold, if the Jets win nine games (or fewer) it would be hard to look at this season as anything other than a failure. This is actually lower than I expected - but fair if you consider that the Jets have won more than nine games once in the last 12 years. Who were the best players cut this week? New York Jets If they’re as good (or better) than they showed late last season and handle business against perceived lesser competition, they’ll repeat as division champs. And there are some very winnable games in the middle of the schedule along with some measuring stick contests in there with the 49ers and Bengals. The Jaguars have a chance to start 3-1 heading into a big matchup with the Bills. Still, this is a loaded team, and 11 or 12 wins would be a reasonable projection. The 49ers won 13 games last season but have a tougher travel schedule this year - with about 30,000 plane miles - so a slightly lower win total can probably be expected. But this is still one of the best teams in the NFC. With nine road games, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Cowboys’ win total drop by a game or two. It’s the first time Dallas has won double-digit games in consecutive seasons since 1996. The Cowboys have won 12 games in each of the past two seasons. The North will be much better, but remember, Cincinnati went only 3-3 in the division last year and still finished 12-4. Very little has changed on the roster and coaching staff. Once they settled in, they ripped off 10 wins in a row before the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals started slowly last season with a new offensive line, then played a rigorous schedule down the stretch. Bo Wulfīengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (Andy Lyons / Getty Images) Cincinnati Bengals Given the landscape of the NFC, they deserve to be tabbed as conference favorites. And yet, they still look like they should have one of the league’s best offenses and, critically, they made it through the summer without significant injury to any key contributors. The schedule also figures to be more difficult than it was in 2022, and there are a host of things, like injuries, red zone performance and turnover luck, that are likely to regress this season. After winning 14 games last season, the Eagles underwent significant turnover this offseason on defense and have two new coordinators. The biggest question is if Chris Jones, who skipped training camp, can lead the defense to be a top-10 unit. and Andrew Wylie with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, the Chiefs’ offensive line could be even better at protecting Mahomes. Although general manager Brett Veach replaced tackles Orlando Brown Jr. The Chiefs still have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Here are the numbers and reactions: Kansas City Chiefs Next, our NFL writers considered and then reacted to the number for each team. The simulator repeats this process 10,000 times to find an expected win total for each team. He loads his projections into a simulator that plays each game in the NFL season to see how many games every team would win. He uses them for each game of the season to get a projected spread and then converts it into a projected winning percentage. Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, and more, in two ways.įirst, Austin Mock runs his NFL betting model using various metrics to create projections for each team.
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